Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Stock Analysis — PE Ratio, PS Ratio, Intrinsic Value & 2030 Price Target
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock (CMG) is currently trading at $32.50. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc PE ratio is 28.51. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) is 3.60. Analyst consensus price target for CMG is $44.59. WallStSmart rates CMG as Hold.
- CMG PE ratio analysis and historical PE chart
- CMG PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) history and trend
- CMG intrinsic value — DCF, Graham Number, EPV models
- CMG stock price prediction 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
- CMG fair value vs current price
- CMG insider transactions and insider buying
- Is CMG undervalued or overvalued?
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc financial analysis — revenue, earnings, cash flow
- CMG Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score
- CMG analyst price target and Smart Rating
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
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CMG Intrinsic Value Analysis for Value Investors
Benjamin Graham Formula · Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
CMG trades 147% above its Graham fair value of $15.05, indicating the stock may be overvalued at current levels.
Based on Benjamin Graham Formula. Growth rate capped at 25%. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Smart Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) · 10 metrics scored
Smart Score
Category Performance
WallStSmart pulls financial metrics like revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation ratios and scores each one from 0 to 10 based on how strong or weak it is. Those 10 scores are grouped into 4 categories: Growth, Profitability, Valuation, and Quality — which form the 4 axes of the spider chart you see. The categories are then combined into a final score out of 100, but not equally. Growth and Profitability together count for 60% of the total, because a fast-growing profitable business matters more than just a cheap one. That final number maps to a rating (Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Avoid) and a letter grade, giving you one clear Stock Rating.
Investment Thesis
Strong fundamentals in market cap, return on equity, institutional own.. Concerns around price/book and revenue growth. Fundamentals are solid but monitor weak areas for improvement.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Key Strengths (3)
Every $100 of shareholder equity generates $47 in profit
91.12% of shares held by major funds and institutions
Large-cap company with substantial market presence
Supporting Valuation Data
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Areas to Watch (7)
Very expensive at 15.3x book value
Revenue growing slowly at 4.90% annually
Earnings barely growing at 4.00%
Growth is fairly priced, not cheap, not expensive
Decent operational efficiency, solid but not exceptional
Revenue is fairly priced at 3.60x sales
Decent profitability, keeps $13 per $100 revenue
Supporting Valuation Data
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Detailed Analysis Report
Overall Assessment
This company scores 56/100 in our Smart Analysis, earning a C grade. Out of 10 metrics analyzed, 3 register as strengths (avg 9.7/10) while 7 fall into concern territory (avg 4.3/10). The category breakdown reveals uneven performance, with some areas requiring attention.
The Bull Case
The strongest argument centers on Return on Equity, Institutional Own., Market Cap. Profitability is solid with Return on Equity at 47.40%.
The Bear Case
The primary concerns are Price/Book, Revenue Growth, EPS Growth. Some valuation metrics including PEG Ratio (1.73), Price/Sales (3.60), Price/Book (15.35) suggest expensive pricing. Growth concerns include Revenue Growth at 4.90%, EPS Growth at 4.00%, which may limit upside. Profitability pressure is visible in Operating Margin at 15.20%, Profit Margin at 12.90%.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
Three factors to monitor going forward. First, whether Price/Book improves, as this is the primary drag on the overall score. Second, margin trajectory, with Return on Equity at 47.40% currently healthy but needing to be sustained. Third, growth sustainability, with Revenue Growth at 4.90% needing to reaccelerate.
Risk Considerations
Based on the metric profile, this is a moderate-to-high risk investment. There are more areas of concern than strength, warranting a more conservative position size. Investors should size positions according to their risk tolerance and maintain diversification.
Bottom Line
Mixed fundamentals with both positives (Return on Equity, Institutional Own.) and negatives (Price/Book, Revenue Growth). A cautious approach is warranted. Monitor for improvement in weak areas before increasing conviction.
Disclaimer: Smart Analysis is a scoring system developed by WallStSmart Team. Scores update daily using multi-model valuation framework. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
CMG Price-to-Sales(PS) Ratio Chart
Historical valuation based on market cap ÷ trailing 12-month revenue
CMG's Price-to-Sales ratio of 3.60x trades at a deep discount to its historical average of 195.32x (0th percentile). The current valuation is 99% below its historical high of 431.35x set in Apr 2024, and 0% above its historical low of 3.6x in Mar 2026. Over the past 12 months, the PS ratio has compressed from ~6.0x as trailing revenue scaled faster than the stock price.
WallStSmart Analysis Synopsis
Data-driven financial summary for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) · CONSUMER CYCLICAL › RESTAURANTS
The Big Picture
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc operates as a stable business with moderate growth and solid fundamentals. Revenue reached 11.9B with 5% growth year-over-year. Profit margins of 12.9% are healthy, with room for further expansion as the business scales.
Key Findings
ROE of 47.4% means the company generates strong returns on shareholder equity. Above 20% is considered top-tier.
Generating 228M in free cash flow and 426M in operating cash flow. Earnings are translating into actual cash generation.
Debt-to-equity ratio of 3.48 is elevated. High leverage amplifies both gains and losses and increases financial risk.
What to Watch Next
Margin expansion: can Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc push profit margins above 15% as the business scales?
Debt management: total debt of 9.8B is significantly higher than cash (351M). Monitor refinancing risk.
Sector dynamics: monitor RESTAURANTS industry trends, competitive moves, and regulatory changes that could impact Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
Bottom Line
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc offers stability with moderate growth and solid fundamentals. The valuation may present an opportunity for patient investors, though limited growth means returns will likely come from dividends and modest capital appreciation rather than explosive gains.
This synopsis is generated from publicly available financial data. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Insider Transactions(30 last 3 months)
| Insider | Type | Shares |
|---|---|---|
FILIKRUSHEL, PATRICIA Director | Sell | -3,350 |
Data sourced from SEC Form 4 filings
Last updated: 12:56:58 PM
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc(CMG)
NYSE
CONSUMER CYCLICAL
RESTAURANTS
USA
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.