Alcoa Corp (AA)vsCentury Aluminum Company (CENX)
AA
Alcoa Corp
$58.70
+3.56%
BASIC MATERIALS · Cap: $14.96B
CENX
Century Aluminum Company
$50.19
-0.08%
BASIC MATERIALS · Cap: $4.97B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
Alcoa Corp generates 408% more annual revenue ($12.83B vs $2.53B). AA leads profitability with a 9.0% profit margin vs 1.6%. CENX appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.06. AA earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 53/100 (C-).
AA
Buy53
out of 100
Grade: C-
CENX
Hold41
out of 100
Grade: D
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+15.2%
Fair Value
$74.46
Current Price
$58.70
$15.76 discount
Margin of Safety
-1768.5%
Fair Value
$2.86
Current Price
$50.19
$47.33 premium
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Growing faster than its price suggests
Revenue surging 40.0% year-over-year
Areas to Watch
Distress zone — elevated risk
Expensive relative to growth rate
Revenue declined 1.1%
ROE of 1.6% — below average capital efficiency
1.6% margin — thin
Premium valuation, high expectations priced in
Earnings declined 95.1%
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : AA
The strongest argument for AA centers on P/E Ratio, Price/Book.
Bull Case : CENX
The strongest argument for CENX centers on PEG Ratio, Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 40.0% demonstrates continued momentum. PEG of 0.06 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bear Case : AA
The primary concerns for AA are Altman Z-Score, PEG Ratio, Revenue Growth.
Bear Case : CENX
The primary concerns for CENX are Return on Equity, Profit Margin, P/E Ratio. A P/E of 119.5x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 1.6% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
AA profiles as a value stock while CENX is a hypergrowth play — different risk/reward profiles.
CENX carries more volatility with a beta of 2.12 — expect wider price swings.
CENX is growing revenue faster at 40.0% — sustainability is the question.
AA generates stronger free cash flow (162M), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
AA scores higher overall (53/100 vs 41/100). Both earn "Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Alcoa Corp
BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM · USA
Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Century Aluminum Company
BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM · USA
Century Aluminum Company produces standard quality and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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