First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Stock Analysis — PE Ratio, PS Ratio, Intrinsic Value & 2030 Price Target
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock (FWRG) is currently trading at $11.27. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc PE ratio is 36.97. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) is 0.57. Analyst consensus price target for FWRG is $19.50. WallStSmart rates FWRG as Hold.
- FWRG PE ratio analysis and historical PE chart
- FWRG PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) history and trend
- FWRG intrinsic value — DCF, Graham Number, EPV models
- FWRG stock price prediction 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
- FWRG fair value vs current price
- FWRG insider transactions and insider buying
- Is FWRG undervalued or overvalued?
- First Watch Restaurant Group Inc financial analysis — revenue, earnings, cash flow
- FWRG Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score
- FWRG analyst price target and Smart Rating
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
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FWRG Intrinsic Value Analysis for Value Investors
Benjamin Graham Formula · First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)
FWRG trades 14% above its Graham fair value of $14.51, indicating the stock may be overvalued at current levels.
Based on Benjamin Graham Formula. Growth rate capped at 25%. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Smart Analysis
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) · 9 metrics scored
Smart Score
Category Performance
WallStSmart pulls financial metrics like revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation ratios and scores each one from 0 to 10 based on how strong or weak it is. Those 10 scores are grouped into 4 categories: Growth, Profitability, Valuation, and Quality — which form the 4 axes of the spider chart you see. The categories are then combined into a final score out of 100, but not equally. Growth and Profitability together count for 60% of the total, because a fast-growing profitable business matters more than just a cheap one. That final number maps to a rating (Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Avoid) and a letter grade, giving you one clear Stock Rating.
Investment Thesis
Strong fundamentals in price/sales, price/book, revenue growth. Concerns around return on equity and operating margin. Fundamentals are solid but monitor weak areas for improvement.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Key Strengths (5)
Paying less than $1 for every $1 of annual revenue
Earnings per share surging 2290.00% year-over-year
120.77% of shares held by major funds and institutions
Trading at 1.19x book value, attractively priced
Strong revenue growth at 20.20% annually
Supporting Valuation Data
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Areas to Watch (4)
Very low returns on shareholder equity
Near-zero operating margins, business under pressure
Very thin margins, barely profitable
Small-cap company with higher risk but more growth potential
Supporting Valuation Data
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) Detailed Analysis Report
Overall Assessment
This company scores 56/100 in our Smart Analysis, earning a C grade. Out of 9 metrics analyzed, 5 register as strengths (avg 9.2/10) while 4 fall into concern territory (avg 2.3/10). The category breakdown reveals uneven performance, with some areas requiring attention.
The Bull Case
The strongest argument centers on Price/Sales, EPS Growth, Institutional Own.. Valuation metrics including Price/Sales (0.57), Price/Book (1.19) suggest the stock is attractively priced. Growth metrics are encouraging with Revenue Growth at 20.20%, EPS Growth at 2290.00%.
The Bear Case
The primary concerns are Return on Equity, Operating Margin, Profit Margin. Profitability pressure is visible in Return on Equity at 3.18%, Operating Margin at 3.17%, Profit Margin at 1.59%.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
Three factors to monitor going forward. First, whether Return on Equity improves, as this is the primary drag on the overall score. Second, margin trajectory, with Return on Equity at 3.18% needing improvement to support the investment thesis. Third, growth sustainability, with Revenue Growth at 20.20% strong but requiring continuation.
Risk Considerations
Based on the metric profile, this is a moderate-to-high risk investment. The weight of evidence leans positive, with more strengths than concerns. Investors should size positions according to their risk tolerance and maintain diversification.
Bottom Line
Mixed fundamentals with both positives (Price/Sales, EPS Growth) and negatives (Return on Equity, Operating Margin). A cautious approach is warranted. Monitor for improvement in weak areas before increasing conviction.
Disclaimer: Smart Analysis is a scoring system developed by WallStSmart Team. Scores update daily using multi-model valuation framework. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
FWRG Price-to-Sales(PS) Ratio Chart
Historical valuation based on market cap ÷ trailing 12-month revenue
FWRG's Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.57x trades at a deep discount to its historical average of 1.32x (0th percentile). The current valuation is 85% below its historical high of 3.85x set in Oct 2021, and 1% above its historical low of 0.57x in Mar 2026. Over the past 12 months, the PS ratio has compressed from ~1.0x as trailing revenue scaled faster than the stock price.
WallStSmart Analysis Synopsis
Data-driven financial summary for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) · CONSUMER CYCLICAL › RESTAURANTS
The Big Picture
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a strong growth company balancing expansion with improving profitability. Revenue reached 1.2B with 20% growth year-over-year. Profit margins are strong at 159.0%, reflecting pricing power and operational efficiency.
Key Findings
ROE of 318.0% means the company generates strong returns on shareholder equity. Above 20% is considered top-tier.
Profit margin of 159.0% and operating margin of 317.0% demonstrate strong pricing power and operational efficiency.
Free cash flow is -18M, meaning the company is burning cash. This may be acceptable for high-growth companies investing heavily.
What to Watch Next
Growth sustainability: can First Watch Restaurant Group Inc maintain 20%+ revenue growth, or will competition slow it down?
Debt management: total debt of 983M is significantly higher than cash (21M). Monitor refinancing risk.
Sector dynamics: monitor RESTAURANTS industry trends, competitive moves, and regulatory changes that could impact First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.
Bottom Line
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc offers an attractive blend of growth (20% revenue expansion) and improving fundamentals. The company is transitioning from pure growth to profitable growth, a critical inflection point. Watch for sustained margin expansion as the key signal.
This synopsis is generated from publicly available financial data. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Insider Transactions
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About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG)
NASDAQ
CONSUMER CYCLICAL
RESTAURANTS
USA
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) is a leading entity in the fast-casual dining landscape, focusing on breakfast, brunch, and lunch with an emphasis on health-conscious, fresh, and high-quality ingredients. Established in 1983, the company has developed a dedicated customer following through its innovative menu that evolves with culinary trends. First Watch's commitment to outstanding customer service and a distinctive dining experience is complemented by its strategic expansion into new markets, laying the foundation for sustainable growth and enhanced shareholder value in the competitive restaurant industry.