WallStSmart

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)vsFirst Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc generates 876% more annual revenue ($11.93B vs $1.22B). CMG leads profitability with a 12.9% profit margin vs 1.6%. CMG trades at a lower P/E of 28.5x. FWRG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 56/100 (C).

CMG

Buy

56

out of 100

Grade: C

Growth: 5.3Profit: 8.0Value: 7.3Quality: 5.0
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 2.47

FWRG

Buy

56

out of 100

Grade: C

Growth: 8.0Profit: 4.0Value: 6.3Quality: 5.0
Piotroski: 2/9Altman Z: 1.15
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

CMGSignificantly Overvalued (-147.3%)

Margin of Safety

-147.3%

Fair Value

$15.05

Current Price

$32.50

$17.45 premium

UndervaluedFair: $15.05Overvalued
FWRGOvervalued (-14.3%)

Margin of Safety

-14.3%

Fair Value

$14.51

Current Price

$11.27

$3.24 premium

UndervaluedFair: $14.51Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

CMG1 strengths · Avg: 10.0/10
Return on EquityProfitability
47.4%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 47 in profit

FWRG3 strengths · Avg: 8.7/10
Price/BookValuation
1.1x10/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Revenue GrowthGrowth
20.2%8/10

Revenue surging 20.2% year-over-year

EPS GrowthGrowth
22.9%8/10

Earnings expanding 22.9% YoY

Areas to Watch

CMG4 concerns · Avg: 4.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.734/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

P/E RatioValuation
28.5x4/10

Moderate valuation

Price/BookValuation
15.0x4/10

Trading at 15.0x book value

Revenue GrowthGrowth
4.9%4/10

4.9% revenue growth

FWRG4 concerns · Avg: 3.3/10
P/E RatioValuation
37.0x4/10

Premium valuation, high expectations priced in

Market CapQuality
$700.64M3/10

Smaller company, higher risk/reward

Return on EquityProfitability
3.2%3/10

ROE of 3.2% — below average capital efficiency

Profit MarginProfitability
1.6%3/10

1.6% margin — thin

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : CMG

The strongest argument for CMG centers on Return on Equity.

Bull Case : FWRG

The strongest argument for FWRG centers on Price/Book, Revenue Growth, EPS Growth. Revenue growth of 20.2% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : CMG

The primary concerns for CMG are PEG Ratio, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Debt-to-equity of 3.48 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : FWRG

The primary concerns for FWRG are P/E Ratio, Market Cap, Return on Equity. Debt-to-equity of 1.62 is elevated, increasing financial risk. Thin 1.6% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

CMG profiles as a value stock while FWRG is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.

CMG carries more volatility with a beta of 1.02 — expect wider price swings.

FWRG is growing revenue faster at 20.2% — sustainability is the question.

CMG generates stronger free cash flow (228M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

CMG scores higher overall (56/100 vs 56/100). Both earn "Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS · USA

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.

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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS · USA

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) is a leading entity in the fast-casual dining landscape, focusing on breakfast, brunch, and lunch with an emphasis on health-conscious, fresh, and high-quality ingredients. Established in 1983, the company has developed a dedicated customer following through its innovative menu that evolves with culinary trends. First Watch's commitment to outstanding customer service and a distinctive dining experience is complemented by its strategic expansion into new markets, laying the foundation for sustainable growth and enhanced shareholder value in the competitive restaurant industry.

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