ConocoPhillips (COP)vsNorthern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG)
COP
ConocoPhillips
$128.93
-0.32%
ENERGY · Cap: $157.60B
NOG
Northern Oil & Gas Inc
$29.61
+1.68%
ENERGY · Cap: $3.09B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
ConocoPhillips generates 2970% more annual revenue ($60.28B vs $1.96B). COP leads profitability with a 13.3% profit margin vs 2.0%. NOG appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.56. NOG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 56/100 (C).
COP
Hold48
out of 100
Grade: D+
NOG
Buy56
out of 100
Grade: C
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
-157.1%
Fair Value
$43.25
Current Price
$128.93
$85.68 premium
Margin of Safety
-903.0%
Fair Value
$2.65
Current Price
$29.61
$26.96 premium
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Large-cap with strong market position
Reasonable price relative to book value
Generating 1.3B in free cash flow
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 56.1%
Growing faster than its price suggests
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
Revenue declined 6.8%
Earnings declined 39.0%
ROE of 1.7% — below average capital efficiency
2.0% margin — thin
Premium valuation, high expectations priced in
Revenue declined 17.1%
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : COP
The strongest argument for COP centers on Market Cap, Price/Book, Free Cash Flow.
Bull Case : NOG
The strongest argument for NOG centers on Price/Book, Operating Margin, PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.56 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bear Case : COP
The primary concerns for COP are PEG Ratio, Revenue Growth, EPS Growth.
Bear Case : NOG
The primary concerns for NOG are Return on Equity, Profit Margin, P/E Ratio. A P/E of 75.9x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 2.0% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
COP profiles as a declining stock while NOG is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.
NOG carries more volatility with a beta of 1.01 — expect wider price swings.
COP is growing revenue faster at -6.8% — sustainability is the question.
COP generates stronger free cash flow (1.3B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
NOG scores higher overall (56/100 vs 48/100). Both earn "Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
ConocoPhillips
ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P · USA
ConocoPhillips is an American multinational corporation engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is based in the Energy Corridor district of Houston, Texas.
Northern Oil & Gas Inc
ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P · USA
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
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