WallStSmart

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)vsPackaging Corp of America (PKG)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Packaging Corp of America generates 64% more annual revenue ($8.99B vs $5.50B). AMBP leads profitability with a 20.0% profit margin vs 8.6%. PKG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 54/100 (C-).

AMBP

Hold

42

out of 100

Grade: D

Growth: 7.3Profit: 5.0Value: 5.0Quality: 6.0
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 1.02

PKG

Buy

54

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 4.0Profit: 7.0Value: 7.3Quality: 4.3
Piotroski: 1/9
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

Intrinsic value data unavailable for AMBP.

PKGSignificantly Overvalued (-319.6%)

Margin of Safety

-319.6%

Fair Value

$58.28

Current Price

$213.36

$155.08 premium

UndervaluedFair: $58.28Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AMBP3 strengths · Avg: 9.7/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
75.0%10/10

Earnings expanding 75.0% YoY

Debt/EquityHealth
-11.9710/10

Conservative balance sheet, low leverage

Profit MarginProfitability
20.0%9/10

Keeps 20 of every $100 in revenue as profit

PKG0 strengths · Avg: 0/10

No standout strengths identified

Areas to Watch

AMBP3 concerns · Avg: 2.3/10
Operating MarginProfitability
3.3%3/10

Operating margin of 3.3%

Return on EquityProfitability
-63.6%2/10

ROE of -63.6% — below average capital efficiency

Altman Z-ScoreHealth
1.022/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

PKG3 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.634/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
1/93/10

Weak financial health signals

EPS GrowthGrowth
-56.5%2/10

Earnings declined 56.5%

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AMBP

The strongest argument for AMBP centers on EPS Growth, Debt/Equity, Profit Margin. Profitability is solid with margins at 20.0% and operating margin at 3.3%. Revenue growth of 12.6% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bull Case : PKG

Revenue growth of 10.1% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AMBP

The primary concerns for AMBP are Operating Margin, Return on Equity, Altman Z-Score.

Bear Case : PKG

The primary concerns for PKG are PEG Ratio, Piotroski F-Score, EPS Growth.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

AMBP profiles as a mature stock while PKG is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.

PKG carries more volatility with a beta of 0.90 — expect wider price swings.

AMBP is growing revenue faster at 12.6% — sustainability is the question.

AMBP generates stronger free cash flow (315M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

PKG scores higher overall (54/100 vs 42/100) and 10.1% revenue growth. Both earn "Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) is a leading global provider of sustainable metal packaging solutions, specializing in innovative designs for the beverage, food, and personal care industries. With a strategic network of production facilities across the globe, the company combines advanced manufacturing processes with a commitment to rapid responsiveness, ensuring high-quality products that meet a wide array of customer needs. Ardagh's strong focus on sustainability and adherence to circular economy principles uniquely positions it to benefit from the growing demand for eco-friendly packaging solutions, thereby presenting compelling growth opportunities and value creation for institutional investors.

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Packaging Corp of America

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois.

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