WallStSmart

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)vsPackaging Corp of America (PKG)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Packaging Corp of America generates 61% more annual revenue ($9.22B vs $5.73B). PKG leads profitability with a 8.0% profit margin vs 0.2%. PKG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 54/100 (C-).

AMBP

Hold

42

out of 100

Grade: D

Growth: 8.0Profit: 4.0Value: 4.0Quality: 5.5
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 0.88

PKG

Buy

54

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 4.0Profit: 7.0Value: 5.0Quality: 6.5
Piotroski: 1/9Altman Z: 2.34
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AMBPSignificantly Overvalued (-16.7%)

Margin of Safety

-16.7%

Fair Value

$4.19

Current Price

$3.94

$0.25 premium

UndervaluedFair: $4.19Overvalued

Intrinsic value data unavailable for PKG.

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AMBP3 strengths · Avg: 9.3/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
75.0%10/10

Earnings expanding 75.0% YoY

Debt/EquityHealth
-6.4210/10

Conservative balance sheet, low leverage

Revenue GrowthGrowth
18.6%8/10

18.6% revenue growth

PKG0 strengths · Avg: 0/10

No standout strengths identified

Areas to Watch

AMBP4 concerns · Avg: 2.5/10
Profit MarginProfitability
0.2%3/10

0.2% margin — thin

Operating MarginProfitability
3.9%3/10

Operating margin of 3.9%

Return on EquityProfitability
-63.6%2/10

ROE of -63.6% — below average capital efficiency

Free Cash FlowQuality
$-405.00M2/10

Negative free cash flow — burning cash

PKG4 concerns · Avg: 3.3/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.714/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

P/E RatioValuation
27.7x4/10

Moderate valuation

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
1/93/10

Weak financial health signals

EPS GrowthGrowth
-15.5%2/10

Earnings declined 15.5%

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AMBP

The strongest argument for AMBP centers on EPS Growth, Debt/Equity, Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 18.6% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bull Case : PKG

Revenue growth of 10.6% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AMBP

The primary concerns for AMBP are Profit Margin, Operating Margin, Return on Equity. Thin 0.2% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Bear Case : PKG

The primary concerns for PKG are PEG Ratio, P/E Ratio, Piotroski F-Score.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

AMBP profiles as a growth stock while PKG is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.

PKG carries more volatility with a beta of 0.83 — expect wider price swings.

AMBP is growing revenue faster at 18.6% — sustainability is the question.

PKG generates stronger free cash flow (165M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

PKG scores higher overall (54/100 vs 42/100) and 10.6% revenue growth. Both earn "Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) is a prominent global leader in sustainable metal packaging solutions serving the beverage, food, and personal care sectors. With an extensive network of manufacturing facilities worldwide, the company utilizes cutting-edge production technologies to produce high-quality, innovative packaging that caters to diverse market demands. Ardagh's unwavering commitment to sustainability and adherence to circular economy principles position it advantageously in a marketplace increasingly driven by environmental considerations, signaling considerable growth potential and attractive value propositions for institutional investors.

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Packaging Corp of America

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois.

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