WallStSmart

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generates 1868% more annual revenue ($49.10B vs $2.50B). ZTO leads profitability with a 18.5% profit margin vs -4.3%. FWRD appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.66. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 76/100 (B+).

FWRD

Hold

50

out of 100

Grade: D+

Growth: 6.7Profit: 3.0Value: 6.7Quality: 3.5
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 0.87

ZTO

Strong Buy

76

out of 100

Grade: B+

Growth: 6.7Profit: 7.0Value: 10.0Quality: 7.0
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 2.74
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

Intrinsic value data unavailable for FWRD.

ZTOUndervalued (+67.2%)

Margin of Safety

+67.2%

Fair Value

$75.82

Current Price

$24.32

$51.50 discount

UndervaluedFair: $75.82Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

FWRD2 strengths · Avg: 9.0/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
145.0%10/10

Earnings expanding 145.0% YoY

PEG RatioValuation
0.668/10

Growing faster than its price suggests

ZTO5 strengths · Avg: 8.2/10
Debt/EquityHealth
0.199/10

Conservative balance sheet, low leverage

P/E RatioValuation
15.6x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Price/BookValuation
2.0x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Operating MarginProfitability
22.0%8/10

Strong operational efficiency at 22.0%

Free Cash FlowQuality
$7.74B8/10

Generating 7.7B in free cash flow

Areas to Watch

FWRD4 concerns · Avg: 2.5/10
Market CapQuality
$488.14M3/10

Smaller company, higher risk/reward

Operating MarginProfitability
3.6%3/10

Operating margin of 3.6%

Return on EquityProfitability
-63.3%2/10

ROE of -63.3% — below average capital efficiency

Revenue GrowthGrowth
-0.3%2/10

Revenue declined 0.3%

ZTO0 concerns · Avg: 0/10

No major concerns identified

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : FWRD

The strongest argument for FWRD centers on EPS Growth, PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.66 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.

Bull Case : ZTO

The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Debt/Equity, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 18.5% and operating margin at 22.0%. Revenue growth of 12.3% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : FWRD

The primary concerns for FWRD are Market Cap, Operating Margin, Return on Equity. Debt-to-equity of 15.43 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : ZTO

No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

FWRD profiles as a turnaround stock while ZTO is a mature play — different risk/reward profiles.

FWRD carries more volatility with a beta of 1.34 — expect wider price swings.

ZTO is growing revenue faster at 12.3% — sustainability is the question.

ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (7.7B), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

ZTO scores higher overall (76/100 vs 50/100), backed by strong 18.5% margins and 12.3% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Forward Air Corporation

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA

Forward Air Corporation is a light freight logistics and transportation company in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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