Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
FWRD
Forward Air Corporation
$9.67
-5.20%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $327.63M
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$22.28
-1.02%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $17.15B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generates 1990% more annual revenue ($51.49B vs $2.46B). ZTO leads profitability with a 17.9% profit margin vs -3.7%. FWRD appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.66. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 70/100 (B-).
FWRD
Hold50
out of 100
Grade: D+
ZTO
Strong Buy70
out of 100
Grade: B-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Intrinsic value data unavailable for FWRD.
Margin of Safety
+64.6%
Fair Value
$70.28
Current Price
$22.28
$48.00 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Earnings expanding 145.0% YoY
Growing faster than its price suggests
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Revenue surging 22.0% year-over-year
Generating 2.8B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Smaller company, higher risk/reward
Operating margin of 4.0%
ROE of -112.9% — below average capital efficiency
Revenue declined 5.1%
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : FWRD
The strongest argument for FWRD centers on EPS Growth, PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.66 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Altman Z-Score, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 17.9% and operating margin at 19.2%. Revenue growth of 22.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : FWRD
The primary concerns for FWRD are Market Cap, Operating Margin, Return on Equity. Debt-to-equity of 26.55 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
FWRD profiles as a turnaround stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
FWRD carries more volatility with a beta of 1.42 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 22.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (2.8B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (70/100 vs 50/100), backed by strong 17.9% margins and 22.0% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Forward Air Corporation
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
Forward Air Corporation is a light freight logistics and transportation company in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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