Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
FWRD
Forward Air Corporation
$16.61
+2.47%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $488.14M
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$24.32
-3.76%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $19.25B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generates 1868% more annual revenue ($49.10B vs $2.50B). ZTO leads profitability with a 18.5% profit margin vs -4.3%. FWRD appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.66. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 76/100 (B+).
FWRD
Hold50
out of 100
Grade: D+
ZTO
Strong Buy76
out of 100
Grade: B+
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Intrinsic value data unavailable for FWRD.
Margin of Safety
+67.2%
Fair Value
$75.82
Current Price
$24.32
$51.50 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Earnings expanding 145.0% YoY
Growing faster than its price suggests
Conservative balance sheet, low leverage
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 22.0%
Generating 7.7B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Smaller company, higher risk/reward
Operating margin of 3.6%
ROE of -63.3% — below average capital efficiency
Revenue declined 0.3%
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : FWRD
The strongest argument for FWRD centers on EPS Growth, PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.66 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Debt/Equity, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 18.5% and operating margin at 22.0%. Revenue growth of 12.3% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : FWRD
The primary concerns for FWRD are Market Cap, Operating Margin, Return on Equity. Debt-to-equity of 15.43 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
FWRD profiles as a turnaround stock while ZTO is a mature play — different risk/reward profiles.
FWRD carries more volatility with a beta of 1.34 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 12.3% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (7.7B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (76/100 vs 50/100), backed by strong 18.5% margins and 12.3% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Forward Air Corporation
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
Forward Air Corporation is a light freight logistics and transportation company in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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