WallStSmart

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

United Parcel Service Inc generates 66% more annual revenue ($89.93B vs $54.21B). ZTO leads profitability with a 19.0% profit margin vs 5.1%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.06. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 80/100 (B+).

UPS

Buy

57

out of 100

Grade: C

Growth: 3.3Profit: 6.5Value: 6.7Quality: 5.0
Piotroski: 3/9Altman Z: 2.20

ZTO

Strong Buy

80

out of 100

Grade: B+

Growth: 8.7Profit: 7.5Value: 8.7Quality: 7.5
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 3.42
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

UPSUndervalued (+16.0%)

Margin of Safety

+16.0%

Fair Value

$142.88

Current Price

$95.87

$47.01 discount

UndervaluedFair: $142.88Overvalued
ZTOUndervalued (+65.8%)

Margin of Safety

+65.8%

Fair Value

$72.67

Current Price

$19.84

$52.83 discount

UndervaluedFair: $72.67Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

UPS2 strengths · Avg: 9.5/10
Return on EquityProfitability
30.3%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 30 in profit

Market CapQuality
$85.32B9/10

Large-cap with strong market position

ZTO6 strengths · Avg: 9.0/10
P/E RatioValuation
10.9x10/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

EPS GrowthGrowth
58.1%10/10

Earnings expanding 58.1% YoY

Altman Z-ScoreHealth
3.4210/10

Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk

Price/BookValuation
1.6x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Operating MarginProfitability
22.2%8/10

Strong operational efficiency at 22.2%

Revenue GrowthGrowth
23.0%8/10

Revenue surging 23.0% year-over-year

Areas to Watch

UPS4 concerns · Avg: 2.8/10
Profit MarginProfitability
5.1%3/10

5.1% margin — thin

Debt/EquityHealth
1.903/10

Elevated debt levels

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
3/93/10

Weak financial health signals

EPS GrowthGrowth
-53.0%2/10

Earnings declined 53.0%

ZTO0 concerns · Avg: 0/10

No major concerns identified

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : UPS

The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap. PEG of 1.42 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.

Bull Case : ZTO

The strongest argument for ZTO centers on P/E Ratio, EPS Growth, Altman Z-Score. Profitability is solid with margins at 19.0% and operating margin at 22.2%. Revenue growth of 23.0% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : UPS

The primary concerns for UPS are Profit Margin, Debt/Equity, Piotroski F-Score. Debt-to-equity of 1.90 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : ZTO

No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.

UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.04 — expect wider price swings.

ZTO is growing revenue faster at 23.0% — sustainability is the question.

ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (1.9B), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

ZTO scores higher overall (80/100 vs 57/100), backed by strong 19.0% margins and 23.0% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 16.0% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

United Parcel Service Inc

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA

United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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