United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
$95.87
+1.18%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $85.32B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$19.84
+2.01%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $15.72B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
United Parcel Service Inc generates 66% more annual revenue ($89.93B vs $54.21B). ZTO leads profitability with a 19.0% profit margin vs 5.1%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.06. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 80/100 (B+).
UPS
Buy57
out of 100
Grade: C
ZTO
Strong Buy80
out of 100
Grade: B+
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+16.0%
Fair Value
$142.88
Current Price
$95.87
$47.01 discount
Margin of Safety
+65.8%
Fair Value
$72.67
Current Price
$19.84
$52.83 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Every $100 of equity generates 30 in profit
Large-cap with strong market position
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Earnings expanding 58.1% YoY
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 22.2%
Revenue surging 23.0% year-over-year
Areas to Watch
5.1% margin — thin
Elevated debt levels
Weak financial health signals
Earnings declined 53.0%
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : UPS
The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap. PEG of 1.42 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on P/E Ratio, EPS Growth, Altman Z-Score. Profitability is solid with margins at 19.0% and operating margin at 22.2%. Revenue growth of 23.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : UPS
The primary concerns for UPS are Profit Margin, Debt/Equity, Piotroski F-Score. Debt-to-equity of 1.90 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.04 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 23.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (1.9B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (80/100 vs 57/100), backed by strong 19.0% margins and 23.0% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 16.0% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
United Parcel Service Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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