WallStSmart

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

United Parcel Service Inc generates 87% more annual revenue ($88.66B vs $47.51B). ZTO leads profitability with a 18.6% profit margin vs 6.3%. UPS appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.49. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 66/100 (B-).

UPS

Buy

56

out of 100

Grade: C

Growth: 2.7Profit: 6.5Value: 7.3Quality: 6.5
Piotroski: 3/9Altman Z: 2.21

ZTO

Strong Buy

66

out of 100

Grade: B-

Growth: 6.7Profit: 7.0Value: 8.7Quality: 7.0
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 2.80
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

UPSSignificantly Overvalued (-29.2%)

Margin of Safety

-29.2%

Fair Value

$92.89

Current Price

$95.86

$2.97 premium

UndervaluedFair: $92.89Overvalued
ZTOUndervalued (+11.1%)

Margin of Safety

+11.1%

Fair Value

$28.01

Current Price

$24.46

$3.55 discount

UndervaluedFair: $28.01Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

UPS4 strengths · Avg: 8.8/10
Return on EquityProfitability
33.8%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 34 in profit

Market CapQuality
$82.70B9/10

Large-cap with strong market position

P/E RatioValuation
14.8x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Free Cash FlowQuality
$2.59B8/10

Generating 2.6B in free cash flow

ZTO5 strengths · Avg: 8.2/10
Debt/EquityHealth
0.199/10

Conservative balance sheet, low leverage

P/E RatioValuation
15.2x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Price/BookValuation
2.1x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Operating MarginProfitability
20.3%8/10

Strong operational efficiency at 20.3%

Free Cash FlowQuality
$7.74B8/10

Generating 7.7B in free cash flow

Areas to Watch

UPS4 concerns · Avg: 3.3/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
4.6%4/10

4.6% earnings growth

Profit MarginProfitability
6.3%3/10

6.3% margin — thin

Debt/EquityHealth
1.993/10

Elevated debt levels

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
3/93/10

Weak financial health signals

ZTO1 concerns · Avg: 4.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
2.154/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : UPS

The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap, P/E Ratio. PEG of 1.49 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.

Bull Case : ZTO

The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Debt/Equity, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 18.6% and operating margin at 20.3%. Revenue growth of 11.1% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : UPS

The primary concerns for UPS are EPS Growth, Profit Margin, Debt/Equity. Debt-to-equity of 1.99 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : ZTO

The primary concerns for ZTO are PEG Ratio.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a mature play — different risk/reward profiles.

UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.05 — expect wider price swings.

ZTO is growing revenue faster at 11.1% — sustainability is the question.

ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (7.7B), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

ZTO scores higher overall (66/100 vs 56/100), backed by strong 18.6% margins and 11.1% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

United Parcel Service Inc

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA

United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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