United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
$108.30
-2.47%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $92.10B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$20.80
+0.14%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $15.53B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
United Parcel Service Inc generates 69% more annual revenue ($91.37B vs $54.21B). ZTO leads profitability with a 19.0% profit margin vs 4.8%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.05. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 80/100 (B+).
UPS
Buy51
out of 100
Grade: C-
ZTO
Strong Buy80
out of 100
Grade: B+
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+16.8%
Fair Value
$144.21
Current Price
$108.30
$35.91 discount
Margin of Safety
+65.5%
Fair Value
$72.26
Current Price
$20.80
$51.46 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Large-cap with strong market position
Every $100 of equity generates 29 in profit
Generating 2.4B in free cash flow
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Earnings expanding 58.1% YoY
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 22.2%
Revenue surging 23.0% year-over-year
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
4.8% margin — thin
Weak financial health signals
Earnings declined 11.6%
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : UPS
The strongest argument for UPS centers on Market Cap, Return on Equity, Free Cash Flow.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on P/E Ratio, EPS Growth, Altman Z-Score. Profitability is solid with margins at 19.0% and operating margin at 22.2%. Revenue growth of 23.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : UPS
The primary concerns for UPS are PEG Ratio, Profit Margin, Piotroski F-Score. Debt-to-equity of 2.02 is elevated, increasing financial risk. Thin 4.8% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.05 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 23.0% — sustainability is the question.
UPS generates stronger free cash flow (2.4B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (80/100 vs 51/100), backed by strong 19.0% margins and 23.0% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 16.8% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
United Parcel Service Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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